Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
