Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory
A mere two months ago when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.