Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
